Scoreboard
Live · as of 2026-10-29 (New York) · 15 entries scored · 60 fields open · 1 void · scoring v1
Each injury contributes one observation per field. The initial-forecast board is the headline; the latest board scores the last revision published before each field’s freeze point, over the same n. Brier: lower is better, 0 is perfect.
The card scoreboard line appears once 20 entries are scored.
15 of 20 so far. Small-n numbers below are shown in full and move a lot.
Boards
| Field | Initial forecasts (headline) | Latest revision before each freeze point | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1 IR · Brier | 0.198 n=14 | 0.198 n=14 | 0.000 |
| F2 Next game · Brier | 0.141 n=14 | 0.141 n=14 | 0.000 |
| F3 4 weeks · Brier | 0.214 n=3 | 0.214 n=3 | 0.000 |
| F5 Re-injury · Brier | — n=0 | — n=0 | — |
| F4 Games missed · MAE (games) | 2.67 n=3 | 2.67 n=3 | 0.00 |
| F4 · 80% interval coverage | 0.333 | 0.333 | — |
Revision delta (latest minus initial; negative means updating helped).
Calibration
F2 Next game · initial board
| Forecast bucket | n | Mean forecast | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 9 | 4% | 22% |
F2 Next game · latest board
| Forecast bucket | n | Mean forecast | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 9 | 4% | 22% |
A bucket is published once it holds n ≥ 5 entries; smaller buckets are counted on the boards but not shown here.
Void, not scored
- PT-2026-014 F1 · forecast_after_freeze
Resolved but not scored
None.
Raw export
Download the CSV — one row per entry and field, with the v1 forecast and the version each field scores. Every entry, resolution and void, for anyone to recompute: paratros.com/ledger
Monthly boards
The first monthly scoreboard is published on the first Tuesday of November 2026.